140 SW Nathan Ct

Lake City, FL 32024

$274,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,812/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-476/mo
• Annual: $-5,713/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $76,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $274k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (33.9% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $274k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?