140 SW Nathan Ct · Lake City, FL 32024

$274,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2007 0.58 ac lot Est $262k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed 2 bath manufactured home in desirable Deer Creek subdivision just minutes to everything. With 2,280 sqft of living space there's room for everyone. Good size master bedroom with walk-in closet, dual vanities in the bathroom with tub and separate shower. Split floor plan with 3 additional bedrooms on the other end of the home with a second living area with fireplace. Spacious kitchen area with a large walk-in pantry for all of your storage needs. One car metal garage for your car or additional storage.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Recent upgrades
• Split floorplan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• TWO LARGE LIVING ROOMS
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• MASSIVE WALK-IN PANTRY
• NEW METAL ROOF
• RECENT UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $100 annual fee (about $8.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Residential zoning
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $274k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,208 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 SW Nathan Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (0%)	19mo	$178,000	$78	79
523 SW Whitetail Cir	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (-10%)	13mo	$235,000	$115	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $118,944
• Equity at exit: $246,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $374,184
• Equity at exit: $532,322

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,680/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $189,903

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $274,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $274,000
15. 2025-12-17
    listed $279,000 Active
16. 2024-12-31
    soldstatus $178,000
17. 2024-11-19
    soldstatus $178,000 Closed 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    4 bed 2 bath manufactured home in desirable Deer Creek subdivision just minutes to everything. With 2,280 sqft of living space there's room for everyone. Good size master bedroom with walk-in closet, dual vanities in the bathroom with tub and separate shower. Split floor plan with 3 additional bedrooms on the other end of the home with a second living area with fireplace. Spacious kitchen area with a large walk-in pantry for all of your storage needs. One car metal garage for your car or additional storage.

18. 2024-11-12
    listed $185,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    4 bed 2 bath manufactured home in desirable Deer Creek subdivision just minutes to everything. With 2,280 sqft of living space there's room for everyone. Good size master bedroom with walk-in closet, dual vanities in the bathroom with tub and separate shower. Split floor plan with 3 additional bedrooms on the other end of the home with a second living area with fireplace. Spacious kitchen area with a large walk-in pantry for all of your storage needs. One car metal garage for your car or additional storage.

19. 2005-03-07
    soldstatus $272,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,680 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,680 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$2,680
• − Insurance: −$2,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$10,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,568
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $274,000 NFMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $279,000 NFMLS
• 2024-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-19 Sold (MLS) $178,000 NFMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $185,000 NFMLS
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,680 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.