563 State Route 11b

St. Regis Falls, NY 12930

$150,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,328 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 340 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-490/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Regis Falls Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #699 of 755 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in St. Regis Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.