563 State Route 11b · St. Regis Falls, NY 12930

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 340 Days on market

Built 1968 20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this unique 3-bedroom home nestled on 19.8 acres of serene countryside, comprised of three separate parcels offering endless possibilities. Nature lovers will appreciate the babbling Alburg Brook that winds through the property, along with mowed trails, apple trees, and wild berries scattered throughout—perfect for peaceful walks or outdoor adventures. The home itself is warm and inviting, with an added bonus—a former hair salon space located on one side of the house. This area presents a fantastic opportunity to either expand your living space or revive it for commercial use, such as a home business studio, apartment or anything else your mind can dream up! Whethe

Key facts

• Apple trees
• Mowed trails
• Home business studio

Tags

• 19.8 ACRES
• MOWED TRAILS
• APPLE TREES
• WILD BERRIES
• FORMER HAIR SALON SPACE
• HOME BUSINESS STUDIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Parking lot
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; House
• Exterior features: Stone fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Wall furnace; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in St. Regis Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Regis Falls Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #699 of 755 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $123,510 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $79,101
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $234,996
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12930

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,009/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $142,791

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $2	+0% $-41	+5% $-83	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-90	+0% $-41	+5% $8	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-3	base $-41	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 320 DOM
16. 2025-11-11
    status Active
17. 2025-11-10
    status Pending
18. 2025-07-13
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 1996-04-15
    soldstatus $111,582

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,009
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$738
• After-tax cash flow: $248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saint Regis Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627990
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,831
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #10964
• State rank: #699 of 755 in NY

Livability — St. Regis Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 866

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.45%
• Current HPI: 483.7564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+34.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-10 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $150,000 ACVMLS
• 1996-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $111,582 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,009 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.