10250 California 299 None

Burnt Ranch, CA 95527

$99,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $279/mo
• Annual: $3,342/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.06%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,057 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Burnt Ranch Elementary (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #614 of 1,400 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnt Ranch Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 91 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $99k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.