29 Stable Rd

Wilmington, VT 05363

$174,900B

9 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,710 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 231 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $565/mo
• Annual: $6,784/yr
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.85%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#57 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $175k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.5% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.