29 Stable Rd · Wilmington, VT 05363

$174,900

9 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1969 4.15 ac lot $65/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Stable Lodge was built in 1969-1970. Located near Haystack Ski Area, The Golf Course and The Hermitage Club close to the Coldbrook. Built as a post and beam home. Features 4 plus acres with ample parking. Building will need an extensive rehab. Not safe to go into the structure.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• 4 plus acres
• 4.15 acre lot

Tags

• 4 PLUS ACRES
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.5% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#57 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $175k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.85%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $524,547
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -66.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $53,861
• Equity at exit: $75,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $145,270
• Equity at exit: $113,424

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05363

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 222 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $174,900 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The Stable Lodge was built in 1969-1970. Located near Haystack Ski Area, The Golf Course and The Hermitage Club close to the Coldbrook. Built as a post and beam home. Features 4 plus acres with ample parking. Building will need an extensive rehab. Not safe to go into the structure.

18. 2025-10-30
    listed $199,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The Stable Lodge was built in 1969-1970. Located near Haystack Ski Area, The Golf Course and The Hermitage Club close to the Coldbrook. Built as a post and beam home. Features 4 plus acres with ample parking. Building will need an extensive rehab. Not safe to go into the structure.

19. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $73,500
20. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $65,000
22. 2011-03-25
    soldstatus $65,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Being sold "as is" the executor has no knowledge of the property except that is was designed and used as a two family when built.

23. 2010-11-11
    listed $79,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Being sold "as is" the executor has no knowledge of the property except that is was designed and used as a two family when built.

24. 2009-12-07
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$994/yr (+$83/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $4,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,001
• After-tax cash flow: $5,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #12863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,008

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 362.8468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $174,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-25 Sold (MLS) $65,000 PrimeMLS
• 2010-11-11 Listed $79,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,335 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.