409 Reids Mill Way

Carrollton, GA 30116

$235,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-141/mo
• Annual: $-1,686/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#113 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 174 in GA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #185 of 1,228 statewide, top 16%, 972 students, 51% FRL); Central Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 967 students, 52% FRL); Central High School (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,280 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.