409 Reids Mill Way · Carrollton, GA 30116

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2005 1.62 ac lot $171/sqft · 13% below area Est $270k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch. Owner is offering $6,000 carpet allowance

Key facts

• Quiet cul de sac
• Spacious layout
• Roof replaced

Tags

• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• ROOF REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#113 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 174 in GA (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #185 of 1,228 statewide, top 16%, 972 students, 51% FRL); Central Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 967 students, 52% FRL); Central High School (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,280 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,239 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,471
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -13.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Christian Cir	0.09mi	3/3.0	1,437 (+4%)	13mo	$314,900	$219	74
109 Rulon Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-6%)	8mo	$225,000	$174	73
261 Christian Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+4%)	17mo	$264,000	$184	73
1227 Horsley Mill Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-3%)	2mo	$174,000	$130	67
870 Eagles Nest Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-6%)	8mo	$220,000	$171	64
162 Hawk Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-4%)	21mo	$260,000	$197	63
1180 Horsley Mill Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-7%)	8mo	$235,000	$184	52
316 Chestnut Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+14%)	18mo	$274,500	$175	52
1265 Horsley Mill Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+12%)	4mo	$329,750	$215	47
345 Eagles Nest Cir	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,547 (+12%)	20mo	$280,000	$181	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-47,079
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-52,720
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30116

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,051/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $210,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-74	+0% $-141	+5% $-207	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-209	+0% $-141	+5% $-72	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-81	base $-141	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1085 Horsley Mill Rd Carrollton, GA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,600	$1.48	26d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-11
   price $235,000 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch.

2. 2026-02-11
   price $235,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch.

3. 2025-12-29
   price $240,000 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch. Owner is offering $6,000 carpet allowance

4. 2025-12-29
   price $240,000 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch. Owner is offering $6,000 carpet allowance

5. 2025-12-03
   listed $250,000 New 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch. Owner is offering $6,000 carpet allowance

6. 2025-12-03
   listed $250,000 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   This welcoming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on 1.62 acres at the end of a quiet cul de sac was built in 2005. The roof was replaced in 2022. The home offers a spacious layout and peaceful setting and is ready for your personal touch. Owner is offering $6,000 carpet allowance

7. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus $129,900 Sold
8. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus $129,900
9. 2018-12-07
   status Under Contract
10. 2018-10-04
    listed $129,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$111/yr (+$9/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,051
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,407
• After-tax cash flow: $-279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County
• NCES district ID: 1300840
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,692
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4888
• State rank: #38 of 174 in GA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #8542

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carroll County · 124,888 people
• City population: 61,993
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,189
• Household income: $77,030
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,370 people
• By 2030: 127,186 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 133,534 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 137,612 · +11.5%
• By 2075: 142,892 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 136,294 · +10.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.1% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.61%
• Current HPI: 365.8744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $235,000 CBOR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $240,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $240,000 CBOR
• 2025-12-03 Listed $250,000 CBOR
• 2025-12-03 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2019-01-11 Sold (MLS) $129,900 GAMLS
• 2018-12-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2018-10-04 Listed $129,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,051 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.