440 County Road 2048

Hull, TX 77564

$115,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $287/mo
• Annual: $3,446/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#1,599 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hull-Daisetta ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #949 of 1,141 in TX (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hull-Daisetta El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 267 students, 80% FRL); Hull-Daisetta J H (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #857 of 1,662 statewide, top 52%, 59 students, 71% FRL); Hull-Daisetta H S (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 105 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.