440 County Road 2048 · Hull, TX 77564

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.55 ac lot Est $115k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Purchase your own slice of the country life with this beautifully rebuilt farm house. This home is a perfect starter! Tucked away in an established neighborhood, this property is moments from town but has plenty of privacy. The interior is just as welcoming as the cream exterior and poppy blue front door. The living room is open to the dining area which still has the original hard-wood floors like most of the home. The kitchen is idealic to a country home, spacious and tucked towards the rear of the home with a kitchen sink overlooking a view of the yard. The bedrooms in this home are spacious, sizes you'd see in a home with twice the square footage. The primary has its own beautifully done

Key facts

• Rebuilt farm house
• Private bath
• New roof

Tags

• REBUILT FARM HOUSE
• ORIGINAL HARD-WOOD FLOORS
• KITCHEN SINK OVERLOOKING YARD
• PRIVATE BATH
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#1,599 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hull-Daisetta ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #949 of 1,141 in TX (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hull-Daisetta El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 267 students, 80% FRL); Hull-Daisetta J H (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #857 of 1,662 statewide, top 52%, 59 students, 71% FRL); Hull-Daisetta H S (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 105 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 County Road 2048	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$100	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $32,152
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $88,863
• Equity at exit: $79,690

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77564

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $987

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $320	+0% $287	+5% $255	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $234	+0% $287	+5% $340	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $316	base $287	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $115,000 Active
4. 2025-09-30
   historical
5. 2025-09-15
   status Active
6. 2025-08-11
   status Pending
7. 2025-07-26
   price $109,000
8. 2025-07-08
   listed $129,900 Active
9. 2025-07-08
   historical
10. 2025-03-05
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $3,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully rebuilt farm house is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation, structure, and systems, and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage and can increase property's functionality
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage and can increase property's functionality ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hull-Daisetta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823880
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,028
• Composite: 30.64/100
• National rank: #11445
• State rank: #949 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Hull

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #1599
• US rank: #27213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+136.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,545 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.