2209 Katie Crk

Marion, TX 78124

$228,999D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-937/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-937/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 667 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.