Is 2209 Katie Crk in Marion, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.9% cap rate and $-78/mo modeled cash flow at a $228,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2209 Katie Crk?

The modeled cap rate is 5.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,958/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 47.91

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +11.4/30.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
DSCR +3.3/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$228,999

2209 Katie Crk · Marion, TX 78124

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $121/sqft · 19% below area Est $284k · 19% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

Central game room
Attached bathroom
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-937/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (4.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $196k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 667 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,753 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 5.88%
Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
DSCR: 0.93
GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $284,342
List price: $228,999
Delta: -19.46%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5132 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-0%)	1mo	$249,999	$133	99
2220 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$222,999	$121	94
2212 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$221,999	$120	94
2114 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	2mo	$254,999	$138	93
2215 Laurie Spgs	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+0%)	1mo	$253,999	$134	92
5120 Hagerman	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	0mo	$236,999	$142	78
2224 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$210,999	$127	78
2107 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	2mo	$221,999	$133	77
934 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-5%)	1mo	$252,999	$141	67
5112 Hagerman	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,667 (-12%)	2mo	$239,999	$144	55
922 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,650 (-13%)	1mo	$238,999	$145	54
930 Moonshine Ln	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,149 (+14%)	1mo	$273,999	$128	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.7%
Equity multiple: 0.34×
Total profit: $-42,027
Equity at exit: $34,144

10-year hold

IRR: -11.1%
Equity multiple: 0.33×
Total profit: $-42,778
Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 63 active · 54 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $240,999 ($139/sqft)
Median days on market: 45 d
This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

Active inventory: 667
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,958 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
Insurance: −$95
HOA: −$42
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $217,696

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $1	+0% $-78	+5% $-157	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-155	+0% $-78	+5% $-1	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-20	base $-78	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,250
Closing costs: $6,870
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	64d	1	0.03mi
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	64d	1	0.03mi
312 N Lavernia Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$2,200	$1.28	10d	1	0.44mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	71d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Subdivision: Kayden Springs
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeAssociation transfer fee applies

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage
Utilities: Water service: SAWSSewer service: SAWSGas supplier: UnigasElectric supplier: CPSGarbage service: Frontier
Home design: New constructionBuilt by Lennar
Construction: Brick, siding, and cement fiber exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationApproximate age: new
Exterior features: Park/playground in the community

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 10Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 10 x 11Primary bedroom dimensions: 13 x 15
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroomPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Two living areasOpen floor planBreakfast barGame roomUtility room insideLaundry room on main levelWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room on main levelUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $228,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $228,999 Active 47 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $228,999 Active 46 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $228,999 Active 45 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $228,999 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $228,999 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-18

statusdays on market $228,999 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $228,999 Price Change 41 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $228,999 Price Change 40 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $228,999 Price Change 39 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $228,999 Price Change 38 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $228,999 Price Change 37 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $228,999 Price Change 36 DOM
2026-09-11

pricestatusdays on market $228,999 Price Change 35 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $225,999 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $225,999 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $225,999 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $225,999 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $225,999 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $225,999 Active 22 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $225,999 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $225,999 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $225,999 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $225,999 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $225,999 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $225,999 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $225,999 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $225,999 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $225,999 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-18

statusdays on market $225,999 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $225,999 New 10 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $225,999 New 9 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $225,999 New 8 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $225,999 New 7 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $225,999 New 6 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $225,999 New 5 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $225,999 New 4 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $225,999 New 3 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $225,999 New 2 DOM
2026-08-08

remarks 610-char remark
2026-08-08

statusdays on marketlisting id $225,999 New 1 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $225,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $225,999 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $225,999 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $225,999 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $225,999 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $225,999 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $225,999 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $225,999 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $225,999 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,490
− Mortgage interest: −$12,828
− Property taxes: −$3,435
− Insurance: −$1,145
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
− Management: −$1,879
− HOA: −$504
− Depreciation: −$6,662
Taxable loss: −$4,841

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
After-tax cash flow: $225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,455–$28,365 screening

This two-story home features a modern and spacious layout with good condition throughout. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the home. ↑
Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and makes it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and enhances the overall appeal of the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Marion ISD
NCES district ID: 4829100
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $58,465
Composite: 39.86/100
National rank: #3867
State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score: 66/100
State rank: #614
US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Marion, TX
County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 6,907
Household income: $82,534
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 196,854 people
By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
Current HPI: 189.5796
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-08-07 Listed $225,999 LERA
2026-07-18 Price Changed $225,999 Zillow
2026-07-13 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
2026-07-09 Price Changed $230,999 Zillow
2026-07-07 Price Changed $231,999 Zillow
2026-07-03 Price Changed $230,999 Zillow
2026-06-24 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
2026-06-16 Price Changed $236,999 Zillow
2026-06-03 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
2026-05-26 Listed $232,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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