2209 Katie Crk · Marion, TX 78124

$236,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $246k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $232,999; Property listed as Active (last modified May 26, 2026)
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan named Littleton
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,891

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-702/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,916 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,830
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2215 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-0%)	1mo	$232,999	$124	98
2223 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	94
2111 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-2%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	94
111 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-5%)	1mo	$263,999	$147	89
127 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-5%)	1mo	$268,999	$150	88
2231 Laurie Spgs	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,015 (+7%)	1mo	$259,999	$129	86
2219 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$216,999	$130	77
725 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+15%)	1mo	$251,999	$116	74
709 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+15%)	1mo	$246,999	$114	74
2126 Monument Hl	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,024 (+7%)	1mo	$279,999	$138	64
112 Seidel	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,054 (+9%)	1mo	$319,000	$155	54
121 Lost Pines Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-12%)	1mo	$315,000	$190	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,100
• Equity at exit: $35,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,336
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $228,532

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $236,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $237,999 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,999 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$4,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a modern and spacious layout with good condition throughout. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the home.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and makes it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and enhances the overall appeal of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the home. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and makes it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and enhances the overall appeal of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B