176 Downing Rd

Freedom Plains, NY 12569

$495,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$1,331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $418/mo
• Annual: $5,017/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $488k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $495k implies a 2375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.