176 Downing Rd · Freedom Plains, NY 12569

$495,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ultimate Hudson Valley Retreat: Private Living Meets an Enthusiast’s Dream Escape to your own private, tree-lined sanctuary in Pleasant Valley. Tucked away in the highly desirable Arlington School District, this custom-built, 1.7-story residence offers the perfect blend of country living, efficiency, and unmatched mechanical utility. From the moment you arrive, the towering trees and serene surroundings establish a sense of total privacy. Inside, the home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths, framed by striking A-frame commercial-grade windows that flood the main living spaces with beautiful natural light. Designed for total self-sufficiency and year-round comfort, the pr

Key facts

• A frame windows
• Tree lined sanctuary
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• TREE LINED SANCTUARY
• ARLINGTON SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CUSTOM BUILT RESIDENCE
• A FRAME WINDOWS
• CENTRAL VACUUM SYSTEM
• WATER PURIFICATION SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached parking; Driveway; Garage with automatic door opener; 5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Garage(s) and workshop present; Concrete perimeter foundation; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Hot air heating; Hot water heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Central vacuum; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Unfinished walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $488k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $495k implies a 2375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $487,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-53,187
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-10,422
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12569

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$1,069 /mo · $12,831/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,971

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
272 Drake Rd Pleasant Valley, NY	3.0	2.5	1709	$5,500	$3.22	23d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $495,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $582,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $582,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $582,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $582,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $582,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $582,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $582,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $582,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $582,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $582,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $582,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,831 · $1,069/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,831 · $1,069/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$12,831
• − Insurance: −$3,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $5,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Freedom Plains

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,766

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.72%
• Current HPI: 240.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2810.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $582,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,831 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.