1107 Copperwood Ct

Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$415,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,902 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$947
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$859
• Net cashflow: $83/mo
• Annual: $999/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($999/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (1.5% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Grove El (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 763 students, 33% FRL); James Bowie Middle (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,639 students, 41% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.2% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.