637 State St

Menasha, WI 54952

$279,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $466/mo
• Annual: $5,590/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $233/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#59 in WI, #1,628 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities D.
• Menasha Joint School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #300 of 342 in WI (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 652 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (333 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winnebago County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.5% in Menasha — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,990/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 636% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.