2801 Rocky Rd

Palisades, TX 79118

$190,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $510/mo
• Annual: $6,117/yr
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#731 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sundown Lane El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 341 students, 52% FRL); West Plains J H (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 615 students, 33% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.