2801 Rocky Rd · Palisades, TX 79118

$190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2010 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property may be eligible for the FHA $100 down payment program. Ask your agent for details. Nice home on approximately 1 acre with 2 living areas and 2 fireplaces. Master has adjoining room perfect for an office or nursery. Large front porch is wonderful for watching gorgeous sunsets. Large master bath has separate tub and shower.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large front porch
• Partially fenced

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TALL CEILINGS
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SIDING AND ROOF REPLACED
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PARTIALLY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.01-acre lot; Located southeast of Amarillo city limits

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Residential construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Property located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Two fireplaces located in the living room and master bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#731 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sundown Lane El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 341 students, 52% FRL); West Plains J H (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 615 students, 33% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,432
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $73,147
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,573

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $190,000 Active 632-char remark
2. 2012-01-18
   soldstatus
3. 2012-01-13
   soldstatus 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Property may be eligible for the FHA $100 down payment program. Ask your agent for details. Nice home on approximately 1 acre with 2 living areas and 2 fireplaces. Master has adjoining room perfect for an office or nursery. Large front porch is wonderful for watching gorgeous sunsets. Large master bath has separate tub and shower.

4. 2011-11-01
   listed $67,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Property may be eligible for the FHA $100 down payment program. Ask your agent for details. Nice home on approximately 1 acre with 2 living areas and 2 fireplaces. Master has adjoining room perfect for an office or nursery. Large front porch is wonderful for watching gorgeous sunsets. Large master bath has separate tub and shower.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,473/yr (+$123/mo · 73.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $3,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$776
• After-tax cash flow: $5,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palisades

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #13627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+183.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $190,000 AARMLS
• 2012-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-13 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2011-11-01 Listed $67,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.