3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,624 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,020/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$161
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$424
Net cashflow
$496/mo
Annual
$5,957/yr
Cap rate
9.62%
Cash-on-cash
11.88%
DSCR
1.53
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Surf City Elementary (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #193 of 1,410 statewide, top 14%, 808 students, 31% FRL); Surf City Middle (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #71 of 475 statewide, top 15%, 705 students, 23% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $125k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-H173DB9WEPPMY6
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29