195 Conashaugh Trl

Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$279,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$314
• HOA: −$113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-225/mo
• Annual: $-2,698/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.4% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.