12935 E Crab Creek Rd

Lake Carroll, IL 61085

$130,000C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,302/yr
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (2.0% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $127k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stockton CUSD 206 (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #182 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockton Elem School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #182 of 2,056 statewide, top 10%, 141 students, 0% FRL); Stockton Middle School (233 students, 0% FRL); Stockton Sr High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 174 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Jo Daviess County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jo Daviess County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $105k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 0.2% in Lake Carroll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen countertops and appliances — The kitchen appears to be in poor condition with worn-out countertops and appliances.
• Major: Bathroom floor — The bathroom has a worn-out floor and appears to be in poor condition.
• Major: Exterior paint — The exterior of the house and shed are in poor condition with peeling paint and visible wear.
• Major: Flooring — The flooring in the house and shed appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major: HVAC and mechanical systems — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition.