12935 E Crab Creek Rd · Lake Carroll, IL 61085

$130,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition 2.85 ac lot $79/sqft · 42% below area Est $225k · 42% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living on a 2.85 acres . In the hills on a gravel road very private home with 2 creeks running through the property. A diamond in the rough. 4 bedroom , 1 full bath, large living room and dining room adjoining. Kitchen and main floor laundry. Fence in property. Shed 30' X 18' 2 stall detached garage. Both shed and garage has electric to it. Sold As Is ,

Key facts

• 2.85 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 0.2% in Lake Carroll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stockton CUSD 206 (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #182 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockton Elem School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #182 of 2,056 statewide, top 10%, 141 students, 0% FRL); Stockton Middle School (233 students, 0% FRL); Stockton Sr High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 174 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Jo Daviess County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jo Daviess County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $105k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $127,451 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.58%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,390
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -42.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12935 E Crab Creek Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,656 (0%)	1mo	$105,000	$63	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,138
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,338
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61085

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $153	+0% $108	+5% $64	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $58	+0% $108	+5% $159	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $142	base $108	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 372-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $130,000 Active 372-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $1,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with several areas in poor condition. Significant repairs and maintenance are needed to improve the condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertops and appliances — The kitchen appears to be in poor condition with worn-out countertops and appliances.
• Major Bathroom floor — The bathroom has a worn-out floor and appears to be in poor condition.
• Major Exterior paint — The exterior of the house and shed are in poor condition with peeling paint and visible wear.
• Major Flooring — The flooring in the house and shed appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC and mechanical systems — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and make the house more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Replacing the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the overall condition of the house and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the house, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops and appliances · The kitchen appears to be in poor condition with worn-out countertops and appliances.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom floor · The bathroom has a worn-out floor and appears to be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior paint · The exterior of the house and shed are in poor condition with peeling paint and visible wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · The flooring in the house and shed appears to be in poor condition with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC and mechanical systems · The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and make the house more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replacing the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the overall condition of the house and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the house, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton CUSD 206
• NCES district ID: 1737980
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,006
• Composite: 31.09/100
• National rank: #6074
• State rank: #182 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lake Carroll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Jo Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,420 people
• By 2030: 19,405 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 17,244 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,357 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 11,760 · -42.4%
• By 2100: 8,355 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jo Daviess

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 40.8% · R 57.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: 10.5pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+14.9 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.03%
• Current HPI: 167.3068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $130,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid