4025 State St #10

Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$299,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,066
• Net cashflow: $1,944/mo
• Annual: $23,333/yr
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.87%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Vieja Valley Elementary (300 students, 27% FRL); La Colina Junior High (900 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,077/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 415% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.