4025 State St #10 · Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1973 2,480 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable La Cumbre Mobile Home Park, a welcoming 55+ community, this charming Santa Barbara home offers incredible potential with over 1,400 sq ft, mountain views, and standout curb appeal. Custom cedar siding, a spacious deck, and generous outdoor living areas create relaxed coastal vibes, while the light-filled interior features dual-pane windows, an open layout, and endless opportunity to update and make it your own. The 2-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan includes a spacious primary suite, guest room or office, earthquake bracing, and covered parking for multiple vehicles. Ideally located near La Cumbre Plaza, Five Points Shopping Center, restaurants, beaches, bike paths, and m

Key facts

• Outdoor living areas
• Dual-pane windows
• Spacious deck

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CUSTOM CEDAR SIDING
• SPACIOUS DECK
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 74 buildings on the property; Property condition: fixer/fair; Pets allowed with limitations (LTD); Zoning: R-1
• HOA & community: Association membership required; Community amenities include RV/boat storage, clubhouse, and greenbelt; Association fees include property management and common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Water: Goleta Water
• Home design: Townhouse; Double wide; Single story with outside stairs; Raised foundation; Facing: Not specified
• Construction: Wood siding; Other roof
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Shed(s); Level lot; Cul-de-sac setting; Mountain and setting views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (ground floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Solar tube(s); Hand rails
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,077/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 415% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.87%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $175,341
• Equity at exit: $150,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $432,513
• Equity at exit: $246,086

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93110

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,066
• Net cashflow: $1,944

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,151	-5% $2,048	+0% $1,944	+5% $1,841	+10% $1,738
Rent	-10% $1,543	-5% $1,744	+0% $1,944	+5% $2,145	+10% $2,346
Rate	-1.0pp $2,095	-0.5pp $2,020	base $1,944	+0.5pp $1,867	+1.0pp $1,788

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 La Cumbre Cir Santa Barbara, CA	2.0	2.0	1092	$4,400	$4.03	14d	1	0.73mi
4099 Foothill Rd Santa Barbara, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1450	$4,200	$2.90	15d	2	0.91mi
4120 Via Andorra Unit A Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$5,950	$4.09	24d	1	1.13mi
1337 Plaza Pacifica Santa Barbara, CA	2.0	2.5	1686	$15,900	$9.43	14d	1	1.31mi
1337 Plaza Pacifica Santa Barbara, CA	2.0	2.5	1686	$16,400	$9.73	24d	1	1.31mi
277 Canon Dr Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	3.0	1710	$12,000	$7.02	14d	1	1.40mi
4632 Tajo Dr Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.0	1251	$5,150	$4.12	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥84°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,874
• − Management: −$4,874
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $19,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,740
• After-tax cash flow: $18,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Eastern Goleta Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eastern Goleta Valley, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 34,619
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,436
• Household income: $129,209
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Current HPI: 323.0805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $350,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $104 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.