2829 Manning St

Port Arthur, TX 77642

$70,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,416 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $516/mo
• Annual: $6,195/yr
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.67%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Port Acres El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 479 students, 87% FRL); Lincoln Middle (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 722 students, 87% FRL); Memorial H S (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,116 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 84% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.