2829 Manning St · Port Arthur, TX 77642

$70,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1962 7,841 sqft lot $49/sqft · 47% below area Est $133k · 47% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with potential to convert the half bath into a full second bathroom. Being sold as-is, this property offers a strong opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value. Solid layout with room for improvement—ideal for renovation or rental income potential.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School district: Port Arthur
• Financial info: Annual tax amount not included per instructions
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Single story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built year not specified; Foundation not specified
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 60 x 130; Subdivision: Manning

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Not specified
• Interior features: One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Port Acres El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 479 students, 87% FRL); Lincoln Middle (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 722 students, 87% FRL); Memorial H S (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,116 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 84% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.67%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,536
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -47.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $29,757
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $105,592
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77642

• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,731/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $536	+0% $516	+5% $496	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $396	-5% $456	+0% $516	+5% $577	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $551	-0.5pp $534	base $516	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6101 Ray Ave Port Arthur, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $70,000 293-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $80,000 Active 293-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,731
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $4,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Arthur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835400
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 14.9/100
• National rank: #9373
• State rank: #796 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Arthur

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #18061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Arthur, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 38,358
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,358
• Household income: $42,950
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1775.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.58%
• Current HPI: 152.1615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.42%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2026-05-21 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $70,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $80,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,731 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.