100 S Ferry Rd

Shelter Island, NY 11964

$4,295,000A-

6 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,622 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $69,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,523
• Tax + insurance: −$3,033
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,615
• Net cashflow: $29,424/mo
• Annual: $353,090/yr
• Cap rate: 14.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.36%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $1,202,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/7.0-bath single-family listed at $4.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29k ($353k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($70k rent vs $4.29M).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.78M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $114k of equity ($30k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#998 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $600k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3.43M; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1.20M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$290k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.