1233 W Coldwater Rd

Mount Morris, MI 48505

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,377/yr
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.32%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.