1233 W Coldwater Rd · Mount Morris, MI 48505

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1960 0.31 ac lot $74/sqft · 63% above area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this just right-sized home on a double lot. Remodeled this year for worry free living, updates include complete new kitchen and bath, new flooring, doors and fresh paint throughout, new electrical service and panel, and a new high efficiency furnace and water heater. the full basement offers extra space that could be finished for a family room, office, home gym, or another bedroom. The yard is very large and offers plenty of room for a garage or just a great place for the kids or pets. Priced to move quickly so schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• New bath
• New kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATH
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.32%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,667
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 62.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1060 W Cass Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	11mo	$20,000	$28	48
1074 E Kurtz Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	616 (-8%)	14mo	$30,000	$49	47
1115 Clovis Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	14mo	$18,018	$25	44
1080 E Kurtz Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	758 (+13%)	15mo	$43,000	$57	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $28,402
• Equity at exit: $21,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $69,664
• Equity at exit: $32,485

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48505

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $445

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $49,900 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Welcome home to this just right-sized home on a double lot. Remodeled this year for worry free living, updates include complete new kitchen and bath, new flooring, doors and fresh paint throughout, new electrical service and panel, and a new high efficiency furnace and water heater. the full basement offers extra space that could be finished for a family room, office, home gym, or another bedroom. The yard is very large and offers plenty of room for a garage or just a great place for the kids or pets. Priced to move quickly so schedule your appointment today!

17. 2026-05-18
    price $49,900 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Welcome home to this just right-sized home on a double lot. Remodeled this year for worry free living, updates include complete new kitchen and bath, new flooring, doors and fresh paint throughout, new electrical service and panel, and a new high efficiency furnace and water heater. the full basement offers extra space that could be finished for a family room, office, home gym, or another bedroom. The yard is very large and offers plenty of room for a garage or just a great place for the kids or pets. Priced to move quickly so schedule your appointment today!

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $54,900 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Welcome home to this just right-sized home on a double lot. Remodeled this year for worry free living, updates include complete new kitchen and bath, new flooring, doors and fresh paint throughout, new electrical service and panel, and a new high efficiency furnace and water heater. the full basement offers extra space that could be finished for a family room, office, home gym, or another bedroom. The yard is very large and offers plenty of room for a garage or just a great place for the kids or pets. Priced to move quickly so schedule your appointment today!

19. 2026-04-22
    listed $54,900 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Welcome home to this just right-sized home on a double lot. Remodeled this year for worry free living, updates include complete new kitchen and bath, new flooring, doors and fresh paint throughout, new electrical service and panel, and a new high efficiency furnace and water heater. the full basement offers extra space that could be finished for a family room, office, home gym, or another bedroom. The yard is very large and offers plenty of room for a garage or just a great place for the kids or pets. Priced to move quickly so schedule your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$870
• − Management: −$870
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$915
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 18,032
• Household income: $33,283
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 79% White 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 202.4878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $825 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.