39 Shallow Creek Ln

Rayville, LA 71269

$120,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,181/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $955/mo
• Annual: $11,455/yr
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.09%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#158 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Richland Parish (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in LA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mangham Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #251 of 646 statewide, top 41%, 441 students, 57% FRL); Mangham Junior High School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #132 of 218 statewide, top 61%, 211 students, 52% FRL); Mangham High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #136 of 265 statewide, top 55%, 313 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 76% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 17% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Richland Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Richland Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $120k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.