39 Shallow Creek Ln · Rayville, LA 71269

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · Manufactured · 212 Days on market

2.39 ac lot Est $167k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Two living areas
• Dedicated office

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• LARGE COVERED BACK DECK
• OPEN ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $955 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#158 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Richland Parish (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in LA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Richland Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $120k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.09%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,162
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
68 XV Hales Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,015 (0%)	15mo	$166,500	$83	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,348
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $114,274
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71269

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,073/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,023	-5% $989	+0% $955	+5% $921	+10% $887
Rent	-10% $782	-5% $868	+0% $955	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,127
Rate	-1.0pp $1,015	-0.5pp $985	base $955	+0.5pp $923	+1.0pp $892

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-03-20
   price $120,000 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

3. 2026-01-20
   price $129,500 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

4. 2025-12-19
   price $129,900 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

5. 2025-12-03
   price $139,900 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

6. 2025-11-17
   price $145,000 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

7. 2025-10-30
   listed $150,000 Active 944-char remark

   Show marketing remark (944 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful living just 7 miles from the new META facility in this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home set on 2.39 spacious acres in the sought-after Mangham School Zone. Step inside to find a bright split floor plan offering both privacy and comfort. The home features two living areas — a cozy living room and a separate den — plus a dedicated office, perfect for remote work or study. The kitchen is roomy and well-designed, with abundant cabinetry and counter space, while each bedroom offers large walk-in closets for exceptional storage. You’ll love the spacious feel and oversized rooms throughout. Outside, relax or entertain on the large covered back deck overlooking the open acreage — ideal for kids, pets, or a future garden. With plenty of room to spread out, this property blends country living with convenience, just minutes from town and the new growth area. Selling AS IS!

8. 2025-07-28
   status Pending
9. 2025-07-01
   price $129,900
10. 2025-06-05
    price $135,000
11. 2025-05-19
    price $137,900
12. 2025-04-22
    status Active
13. 2025-04-22
    price $139,900
14. 2025-02-21
    status Active
15. 2025-01-27
    status Pending
16. 2025-01-09
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus $27,000
18. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,073
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $10,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,425
• After-tax cash flow: $9,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201350
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $36,097
• Composite: 14.06/100
• National rank: #9464
• State rank: #73 of 98 in LA

Livability — Rayville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #13606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,475

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,283 people
• By 2030: 19,990 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 19,240 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 18,497 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 16,626 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 14,204 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 36% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.4) · D 29.7% · R 69.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -39.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.4 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+28.2 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.82%
• Current HPI: 158.2193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+344.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $120,000 NELABOR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $129,500 NELABOR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $129,900 NELABOR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $139,900 NELABOR
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $145,000 NELABOR
• 2025-10-30 Listed $150,000 NELABOR
• 2025-07-28 Pending — NELABOR
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $129,900 NELABOR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $135,000 NELABOR
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $137,900 NELABOR
• 2025-04-22 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $139,900 NELABOR
• 2025-02-21 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2025-01-27 Pending — NELABOR
• 2025-01-09 Listed $129,900 NELABOR
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+36.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,073 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.