407 SE 4th St

Williston, FL 32696

$139,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $458/mo
• Annual: $5,501/yr
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#256 in FL, #4,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.9% in Williston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.