407 SE 4th St · Williston, FL 32696

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1994 0.30 ac lot Est $139k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Equipped with power
• dining and schools

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• ONE CAR CARPORT
• TWO SHEDS
• EQUIPPED WITH POWER
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPS
• DINING AND SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub-type: Manufactured Home; Lot is cleared and within city limits; Lot size approximately 0.3 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Paved road access; Development: Oak Villa
• HOA & community: No HOA / no association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Fiber optics available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Homesteaded; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Private mailbox; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.9% in Williston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#256 in FL, #4,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
640 SE 10th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+4%)	2mo	$145,000	$145	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,627
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $43,180
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32696

• Home prices YoY: -6.2%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 SE 5th Ter Williston, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	13d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

3. 2026-03-31
   price $139,000 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

4. 2026-03-31
   price $139,000

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

5. 2026-03-03
   price $149,000 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

6. 2026-03-03
   price $149,000

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

7. 2026-01-21
   listed $159,000 Active
8. 2026-01-16
   listed $159,000 Active 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Located right in the heart of Williston city limits, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers convenience and functionality. The property is fully fenced, providing privacy and space for pets or outdoor activities. A one-car carport adds covered parking, while two sheds offer excellent storage—one of which is equipped with power, perfect for a workshop, hobby space, or additional storage needs. Enjoy easy access to local shops, dining, and schools while still having a comfortable place to call home. This property is a great opportunity for full-time living, a rental, or an investment in a growing community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$455/yr (+$38/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$818
• After-tax cash flow: $4,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Williston

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #4045

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,532

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.99%
• Current HPI: 335.7751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $139,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $149,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $159,000 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · +49.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.