221 Timber Dr

Black Hawk, CO 80422

$279,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $62/mo
• Annual: $750/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($750/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#247 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilpin County School District No. Re-1 (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #25 of 176 in CO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilpin County Elementary School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #46 of 966 statewide, top 6%, 199 students, 31% FRL); Gilpin County Undivided High School (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #151 of 381 statewide, top 39%, 209 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Gilpin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gilpin County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $279k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.1% in Black Hawk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.