221 Timber Dr · Black Hawk, CO 80422

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1967 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy mountain cabin on sunny south facing lot. Killer location only a few miles from Ameristar yet still just 30 minutes to Golden. Beautiful, one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature aspen and pine trees. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage/shop with heater and 220V. 3 Bedrooms,1 bath, great living room with pellet stove, and a super cute kitchen with a window looking out at the mountains. 1 of the bedrooms is non conforming but can easily add a closet and some finishing touches. Escape to the mountains AND stay close to the city. This home needs nothing but a new owner and a little bit of love. Great starter home in Black Hawk! No HOA and low Gilpin County Taxes. Financing is available .

Key facts

• 0.99 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two total parking spaces; Two-car garage; Garage is heated, insulated, oversized with an oversized door; 220-volt outlet in garage
• Utilities: Electric: 110V and 220V; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Unattached property; Agent-owned
• Construction: Metal siding and wood siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab; House structure
• Exterior features: Private water source; Nearly 1-acre lot; Horse allowed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary suite (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Carpet and wood flooring; Pellet stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($750/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.0% in Black Hawk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#247 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilpin County School District No. Re-1 (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #25 of 176 in CO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilpin County Elementary School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #46 of 966 statewide, top 6%, 199 students, 31% FRL); Gilpin County Undivided High School (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #151 of 381 statewide, top 39%, 209 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Gilpin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gilpin County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $279k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,919 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,384
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,532
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80422

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $141	+0% $62	+5% $-335	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-22	+0% $62	+5% $147	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $133	base $62	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $279,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny south facing lot. Killer location only a few miles from Ameristar yet still just 30 minutes to Golden. Beautiful, one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature aspen and pine trees. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage/shop with heater and 220V. 3 Bedrooms,1 bath, great living room with pellet stove, and a super cute kitchen with a window looking out at the mountains. 1 of the bedrooms is non conforming but can easily add a closet and some finishing touches. Escape to the mountains AND stay close to the city. This home needs nothing but a new owner and a little bit of love. Great starter home in Black Hawk! No HOA and low Gilpin County Taxes. Financing is available .

16. 2026-04-27
    listed $279,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny south facing lot. Killer location only a few miles from Ameristar yet still just 30 minutes to Golden. Beautiful, one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature aspen and pine trees. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage/shop with heater and 220V. 3 Bedrooms,1 bath, great living room with pellet stove, and a super cute kitchen with a window looking out at the mountains. 1 of the bedrooms is non conforming but can easily add a closet and some finishing touches. Escape to the mountains AND stay close to the city. This home needs nothing but a new owner and a little bit of love. Great starter home in Black Hawk! No HOA and low Gilpin County Taxes. Financing is available .

17. 2025-07-31
    soldstatus $165,000
18. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $165,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

19. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $165,000

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

20. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $165,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

21. 2019-03-22
    listed $174,900 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

22. 2019-03-22
    listed $174,900

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

23. 2019-03-22
    listed $174,900 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Cozy mountain cabin on sunny lot. Beautiful, flat one acre parcel. Park-like setting with mature trees aspen and pine. Quiet and convenient location. Large over-sized garage with heater and 220V. 2 Bedroom. 1 bath. 3 BEDROOM SEPTIC (WITH A ROOM THAT CAN BE EASILY CONVERTED TO BEDROOM). CASH ONLY as this manufactured/mobile home with frame additions was built in 1967. Pellet stove in spacious family room. Vinyl windows with thermal window coverings. Washer. Dryer. Fridge. Freezer, stove/oven, dishwasher. Close to Rec center, casinos, hiking, skiing. Two outdoor sheds. Low Gilpin County taxes. Domestic well for outdoor use.

24. 2016-04-25
    soldstatus $160,000
25. 2016-04-20
    soldstatus $160,000
26. 2016-03-28
    listed $155,500
27. 2012-04-16
    soldstatus $112,500
28. 2012-04-02
    soldstatus $112,500
29. 2011-09-19
    listed $112,500
30. 2003-05-14
    soldstatus $80,000
31. 2003-02-12
    historical
32. 2002-06-28
    listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$957/yr (+$80/mo · 165.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$997
• After-tax cash flow: $1,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilpin County School District No. Re-1
• NCES district ID: 0804230
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,010
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #6155
• State rank: #25 of 176 in CO

Livability — Black Hawk

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #19185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,373

Population outlook (Gilpin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,669 people
• By 2030: 7,035 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 7,628 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 8,089 · +21.3%
• By 2075: 9,417 · +41.2%
• By 2100: 10,058 · +50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilpin

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 54.6% · R 41.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+2.0 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.15%
• Current HPI: 480.54
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+165.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $279,000 IRES
• 2026-04-27 Listed $279,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-21 Sold (MLS) $165,000 IRES
• 2019-08-21 Sold (MLS) $165,000 IRES
• 2019-08-21 Sold (MLS) $165,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-22 Listed $174,900 IRES
• 2019-03-22 Listed $174,900 IRES
• 2019-03-22 Listed $174,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-20 Sold (MLS) $160,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-28 Listed $155,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2012-04-02 Sold (MLS) $112,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-19 Listed $112,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-12 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2002-06-28 Listed $105,000 IRES

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +37.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.