225 Ellis St

San Francisco, CA 94102

$3,980,000A-

None bd · None ba · 6,567 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $56,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,872
• Tax + insurance: −$6,633
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$11,764
• Net cashflow: $16,750/mo
• Annual: $201,001/yr
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.04%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $1,114,400

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $3.98M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($201k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($56k rent vs $3.98M).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.62M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.62M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $218k of equity ($28k loan paydown + $191k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.1%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 198900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.11M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$350k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $56,019/mo this rent would consume 1112% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 3769% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.