2605 W Van Buren St #80

Phoenix, AZ 85009

$85,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,342/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $473/mo
• Annual: $5,673/yr
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: William R Sullivan Elementary School (math 9% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,109 statewide, top 95%, 553 students, 87% FRL); Carl Hayden High School (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #356 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 2,217 students, 93% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.