2605 W Van Buren St #80 · Phoenix, AZ 85009

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $89k · at est. ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * ALL AGES COMMUNITY * * * FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH LOW LOW LOW DOWNPAYMENT * * * 3 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, COMPLETELY RENOVATED with central AC, ALL (newer model) APPLIANCES STAY, INCLUDING WASHER /DRYER. Every bedroom has a walk in closet! WELL LOCATED - Near downtown with easy access to I-10 and I-17. FINANCING IS AVAILABLE.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Well located
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• CENTRAL AC
• NEWER MODEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WELL LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease community; Land lease fee $600 per month; No association fees listed; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: William R Sullivan Elementary School (math 9% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,109 statewide, top 95%, 553 students, 87% FRL); Carl Hayden High School (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #356 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 2,217 students, 93% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,088
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2605 W Van Buren St #111	0.00mi	3/2.0	924 (-0%)	0mo	$89,000	$96	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $12,424
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $34,474
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85009

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: -6.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $502	+0% $473	+5% $443	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $367	-5% $420	+0% $473	+5% $526	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $494	base $473	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2213 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,125	$1.48	0d	1	0.51mi
2133 W Adams St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	0d	1	0.59mi
2121 W Adams St Unit A 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,497	$1.71	23d	1	0.62mi
2121 W Adams St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	875	$1,497	$1.71	0d	2	0.62mi
2045 W Washington St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	0d	1	0.69mi
3223 W Madison St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	630	$800	$1.27	0d	1	0.83mi
3223 W Madison St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	630	$800	$1.27	2d	1	0.83mi
3223 W Madison St Apt 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	630	$950	$1.51	23d	1	0.83mi
3231 W Madison St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	630	$995	$1.58	0d	1	0.84mi
3231 W Madison St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	630	$995	$1.58	19d	1	0.84mi
1930 W Van Buren St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$895	$1.28	0d	1	0.84mi
3232 W Jackson St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	2d	1	0.85mi
3310 W Jackson St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	823	$1,450	$1.76	25d	1	0.91mi
3324 W Jackson St #1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	0d	1	0.94mi
3331 W Taylor St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	0d	16	0.94mi
2942 W Yuma St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	23d	1	1.10mi
412 N 17th Dr Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	817	$1,195	$1.46	0d	1	1.12mi
317 N 17th Dr Apt 6 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	600	$1,485	$2.48	0d	1	1.13mi
325 N 17th Dr Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	700	$1,334	$1.91	0d	1	1.13mi
2746 W Pima St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,898	$1.73	2d	1	1.15mi
2746 W Pima St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,898	$1.73	18d	1	1.16mi
1920 W Tonto St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	5d	1	1.17mi
1725 W Sherman St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	590	$1,895	$3.21	0d	1	1.28mi
2938 W Coronado Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,500	$2.07	0d	1	1.31mi
1606 W Taylor St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	11d	1	1.31mi
1709 W Sherman St Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	0d	1	1.32mi
3543 W Grant St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	851	$1,100	$1.29	16d	1	1.33mi
1524 W Monroe St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	2d	1	1.37mi
1524 W Monroe St Unit B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	6d	1	1.37mi
1609 W Latham St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	870	$925	$1.06	11d	1	1.45mi
1326 W Monroe St Unit 1326 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,695	$1.61	0d	1	1.47mi
1505 W McKinley St Apt 1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	778	$1,450	$1.86	0d	1	1.48mi
1050 S 16th Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,360	$1.70	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $85,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-04-06
   price $90,000
8. 2026-03-20
   price $97,500
9. 2026-02-24
   price $99,500
10. 2026-02-11
    price $103,500
11. 2026-01-27
    price $109,500
12. 2025-12-09
    listed $112,500 Active
13. 2025-11-29
    historical
14. 2025-10-30
    price $90,000
15. 2025-09-19
    price $94,000
16. 2025-08-14
    price $100,000
17. 2025-07-11
    price $110,000
18. 2025-05-22
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 2025-05-22
    historical
20. 2025-04-23
    price $144,900
21. 2025-03-28
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,288
• − Management: −$1,288
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $4,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 52,064
• Household income: $52,054
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 34% White 9% Black 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 31% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.78%
• Current HPI: 409.6161
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $97,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $99,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $103,500 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $109,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $112,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $94,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $144,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $150,000 ARMLS