360 Orchard Rd

Moravian Falls, NC 28654

$190,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,188/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#366 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilkes County Schools (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkesboro Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 370 students, 99% FRL); Central Wilkes Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #191 of 475 statewide, top 41%, 576 students, 99% FRL); Wilkes Central High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 752 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 56% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Wilkes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilkes County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in Moravian Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.