426 Duman Rd

Blacklick, PA 15931

$219,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,660 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,693/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,472/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Blacklick Valley SD (town): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #310 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blacklick Valley El Ctr (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 318 students, 100% FRL); Blacklick Valley Jshs (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 282 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 43% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.