426 Duman Rd · Belsano, PA 15931

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,660 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1977 0.90 ac lot $82/sqft · 12% below area Est $249k · 12% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are looking for a ranch style home close to town amenities, but far enough away to be your own private sanctuary - this is it! 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, a large family room, pantry and plenty of storage space - all on one level! There's an open concept kitchen and dining area. .. a living room with a gas fireplace and a primary suite with a full bath. There's also a large bonus room with high ceilings perfect for a theater room, a man cave or get creative and turn it into a guest suite! Outside, you have a beautiful gazebo to sit in and relax on those warm summer nights. The fire pit is right next to it and there are several storage sheds on the property as well - plus an additional 2 car

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Primary suite
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• BEAUTIFUL GAZEBO
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built prior to or in listing (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Cleared, level yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Gas-started fireplaces (2 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Blacklick Valley SD (town): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #310 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,328 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,177
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -12.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-43,309
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,803
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15931

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $197,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-61	+0% $-123	+5% $-185	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-190	+0% $-123	+5% $-56	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-67	base $-123	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $219,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $235,000 751-char remark
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $250,000 Active 751-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,054 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $-197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blacklick Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4203690
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,550
• Composite: 36.25/100
• National rank: #4712
• State rank: #310 of 539 in PA

Livability — Belsano

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 81
• Population (ZIP): 8,852

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.99%
• Current HPI: 131.3961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — AHARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $219,000 AHARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $235,000 AHARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,648 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.