30 Canyon Crk

Junction City, CA 96046

$85,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $149/mo
• Annual: $1,785/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,040 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Junction City Elementary (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #201 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Junction City Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 63 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.