30 Canyon Crk · Junction City, CA 96046

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here is a great opportunity to own a corner lot on Hwy 299 in Junction City. It has great commercial potential with plenty of parking for Equipment. Easy access to 299 and the Junction City store. The Mobile Home is a fixer!!! Could be a great project. A fountain is in the front yard. There is a 20 by 40 slab with a storage container with power also a small barn. Sewer is a septic tank and water is a well on adjoining lot. Property has not been occupied for many years and is very overgrown. Frontage on hwy 299 and canyon creek rd. Owner says bring all offers

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: U - Unclassified District
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (not affixed); Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Has view; Workshop on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Bedrooms: No bedroom-level details provided
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Cooktop; Vinyl flooring; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,040 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Junction City Elementary (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #201 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Junction City Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 63 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $19,686
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $56,781
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96046

• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $663

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $173	+0% $149	+5% $125	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $115	+0% $149	+5% $182	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $170	base $149	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    status $85,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 49 unhealthy d/yr today · 51 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$817
• − Management: −$817
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $1,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Junction City Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619170
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,644
• Composite: 56.1/100
• National rank: #2539
• State rank: #201 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1040
• US rank: #25105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 410

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.99)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 46% Native American 42% White 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $85,000 Trinity AOR

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.