3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,032 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 47 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,153/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$242
Net cashflow
$37/mo
Annual
$448/yr
Cap rate
6.62%
Cash-on-cash
1.15%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($448/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.0% below list).
It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Beard Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #119 of 454 statewide, top 28%, 309 students, 77% FRL); Ramsey Junior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #78 of 201 statewide, top 40%, 832 students, 67% FRL); Southside High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #31 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 1,956 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $65k; list at $139k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Fort Smith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29