1440 Drummer Hill Rd

Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$359,900D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-806/mo
• Annual: $-9,677/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.60%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $360k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.