1440 Drummer Hill Rd · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$359,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2014 0.75 ac lot $191/sqft · 19% below area Est $445k · 19% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

Key facts

• Two private lakes
• Community center
• Finished basement

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• TWO PRIVATE LAKES
• MULTIPLE RIVER ACCESS LOTS
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; Central A/C powered by electricity; Well water; Septic system sized to number of bedrooms
• Home design: Log construction
• Construction: Log construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with space for rooms, walkout level, windows and a front entrance

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $360k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,834 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.60%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,997
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -19.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
181 Brook View Rd	0.30mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,862 (-1%)	4mo	$371,000	$199	76
347 Riley Ct	0.48mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,965 (+4%)	2mo	$565,000	$288	64
1078 Pine Ridge Dr	0.49mi	2/3.0	1,848 (-2%)	23mo	$365,000	$198	56
1880 Blue Mountain Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,965 (+4%)	0mo	$429,900	$219	49
75 Pickford Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-8%)	22mo	$330,000	$191	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-100,136
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-109,834
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,214/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,849

Max offer price $217,442

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Judy Ln Front Royal, VA	3.0	3.0	1255	$2,100	$1.67	43d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 671-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $359,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $369,900 Active 1429-char remark
16. 2026-04-25
    historical
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $699,000 Active
18. 2018-06-25
    soldstatus $225,000
19. 2018-06-22
    soldstatus $225,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

20. 2018-06-22
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

21. 2018-05-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

22. 2018-05-21
    status Contract

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

23. 2018-05-03
    price $220,000

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

24. 2018-05-03
    price $220,000

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

25. 2018-04-17
    listed $225,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

26. 2018-04-17
    listed $225,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    3 Bedroom/3 Full Bath Raised Rancher. Covered Front Porch. Open floor plan. Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & SS appliances. Main level has 2 bedrooms/2 Full baths. Master Bedroom w/ attached bath and walk-in closet. Master bath w/ dual vanities & standing shower. Basement w/ rec room, 3rd bedroom, & 3rd full bath. Sep. Laundry Room in basement. Home on 0.75 Acre lot. Septic 3 bed w/ 4 person max occup.

27. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $207,000
28. 2016-06-10
    historical
29. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $207,000 Sold
30. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $207,000
31. 2016-05-16
    status Contract
32. 2016-04-13
    listed $215,000 Active
33. 2014-01-30
    soldstatus $174,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,951 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$737/yr (+$61/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$2,214
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$16,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+105.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $699,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MRIS
• 2018-05-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-21 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-05-03 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-03 Price Changed $220,000 MRIS
• 2018-04-17 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-17 Listed $225,000 MRIS
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-06-09 Sold (MLS) $207,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-09 Sold (MLS) $207,000 MRIS
• 2016-05-16 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-04-13 Listed $215,000 MRIS
• 2014-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $174,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,214 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.