84 Hazens Notch Rd

Richford, VT 05471

$50,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · Built 1880 · Other · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $576/mo
• Annual: $6,909/yr
• Cap rate: 21.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.05%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.73%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#41 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #2 of 192 statewide, top 1%, 151 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 4.3% in Richford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.