84 Hazens Notch Rd · Richford, VT 05471

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · Other · 63 Days on market

Built 1880 6,969 sqft lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice smaller home totally rehabbed. On car attached garage with nice workshop area. Very scenic area, nice deck overlooking brook in front.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Trout river
• Workshop

Tags

• 0.16 ACRE VILLAGE LOT
• TOWN WATER
• TROUT RIVER
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• 9 MILES FROM JAY PEAK RESORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#41 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #2 of 192 statewide, top 1%, 151 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.05%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $45,230
• Equity at exit: $25,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $106,915
• Equity at exit: $40,744

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05471

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,853/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $638

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $604	-5% $590	+0% $576	+5% $562	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $522	+0% $576	+5% $630	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $588	base $576	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-10-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-16
   price $50,000
3. 2025-08-18
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2025-08-14
   soldstatus $30,500
5. 2013-04-11
   soldstatus $118,491
6. 2006-08-01
   soldstatus $95,500 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Nice smaller home totally rehabbed. On car attached garage with nice workshop area. Very scenic area, nice deck overlooking brook in front.

7. 2006-08-01
   soldstatus $95,500

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Nice smaller home totally rehabbed. On car attached garage with nice workshop area. Very scenic area, nice deck overlooking brook in front.

8. 2006-06-14
   historical
9. 2006-01-25
   listed $99,900
10. 2005-01-31
    listed $99,900 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Nice smaller home totally rehabbed. On car attached garage with nice workshop area. Very scenic area, nice deck overlooking brook in front.

11. 2004-11-30
    soldstatus $59,000
12. 2004-08-20
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,853 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,853 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,853
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $5,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Richford

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #10038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 681

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,374 people
• By 2030: 50,718 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 50,557 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 48,832 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 43,526 · -13.6%
• By 2100: 33,970 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 47.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.0 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+3.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.90%
• Current HPI: 201.012
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $50,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $60,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
• 2013-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $118,491 Public Records
• 2006-08-01 Sold (MLS) $95,500 PrimeMLS
• 2006-08-01 Sold (MLS) $95,500 PrimeMLS
• 2006-06-14 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2006-01-25 Listed $99,900 PrimeMLS
• 2005-01-31 Listed $99,900 PrimeMLS
• 2004-11-30 Sold (MLS) $59,000 PrimeMLS
• 2004-08-20 Listed $59,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,853 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.