35601 Line School Rd

West Carthage, NY 13619

$85,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · Built 1955 · Land · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,462/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $537/mo
• Annual: $6,446/yr
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.80%
• DSCR: 2.19
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $24,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#912 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carthage Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.3% in West Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.